Elliot Wave Theory of Economics
In an interview with Scott Horton on Anti-War Radio, Robert Prechter described a very interesting economic and financial theory known as Elliot Wave Theory. This theory is a complicated one, but at its root it states that market swings result from the expansion and contraction of human emotional states. When social moods are up, bull markets tend to result. When social moods are down, bear markets tend to result. This is sort of, as Scott Horton describes in the podcast, a, “Which came first, the chicken or the egg,” type situation. This theory argues that people are not in worse emotional states due to recessions, but recessions are caused due to the worsening emotional states.
If you are in conflict with this because you believe it negates the fact that the Fed has been the major cause of the problems, don’t be. This theory, as described by Prechter, actually fits very well with the freedom movement’s distrust of the Federal Reserve. I recommend listening to the podcast as Prechter does a great job of blending Elliot Wave Theory with Austrian Economics.
In the podcast, Prechter expands on the Elliot Wave Theory to help predict other events. He states that our own revolution can be explained by this theory. It took years of worsening conditions before the colonists were able to start a revolution and grow a radical idea of liberty to popularity. Yet, when the low was reached, the mindsets of the colonists were ripe to accept a change from the old ways. From there the ideas of libety were spread, and our Constitution was eventually created.
He describes Ron Paul’s run for president as well. He says that the mood was not yet right for Dr. Paul’s ideas to win him the presidency. Yet, he believes that we have entered into a mood swing of negative emotion, which is only going to worsen. Once we hit the bottom of this contraction, the country will be ripe for a change in direction. This is good news for those wanting a shift away from the ways of central banking, creeping socialism, and war. Perhaps the libertarian’s (mindset) day will come in the future. We should make sure we are there to save our country from the hands of tyranny.
